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Upfront Briefing
Drug pricing is back in the headline lane: a push to codify “most favored nation” pricing is making 2026 contracting assumptions feel less optional.
GLP-1 distribution drama also escalated as a compounding pharmacy sued Lilly and Novo Nordisk over an alleged coordinated crackdown on compounded products.
And in deal world, Boston Scientific said it plans to buy Penumbra for $14.5B — a reminder that the checkbook is still open when the asset is big enough.
Tape Action
| Instrument |
Last close |
1D % |
YTD % |
| S&P 500 |
6,945.0 |
+0.2% |
+1.4% |
| Nasdaq 100 |
25,545.1 |
+0.3% |
+1.2% |
| Russell 2000 |
2,674.3 |
+0.9% |
+7.8% |
| Biotech (XBI) |
124.4 |
(1.9%) |
+2.0% |
| Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) |
5,760.1 |
(1.4%) |
+0.9% |
| Clinical Trials ETF (BBC) |
40.4 |
(2.7%) |
+4.7% |
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Risk-on for generalists, risk-off for biotech: S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq 100 +0.3% vs XBI (1.9%).
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Small caps held up: Russell +0.9%, but biotech lagged again: NBI (1.4%).
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Highest beta got hit: BBC fell (2.7%), underperforming both XBI and NBI.
- Market data: U.S. close Jan 15, 2026.
The Big 3
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1
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Trump proposes 'most favored nation' drug pricing plan
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President Trump is advocating for Congress to codify 'most favored nation' drug pricing, a move that could significantly impact pharmaceutical companies and healthcare affordability.
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Why it matters:
MFN isn’t just headline risk — it compresses the ceiling on net prices and can spill into PBM negotiations, rebating strategies, and 2026 guidance for US-exposed franchises. Watch which classes become the first test cases and how quickly payers demand MFN language.
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Source:
Endpoints
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More:
BioSpace; BioPharma Dive; BioCentury
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2
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Compounding pharmacy sues Lilly, Novo Nordisk over GLP-1
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A compounding pharmacy has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, alleging a coordinated effort to crack down on compounded GLP-1 drugs.
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Why it matters:
This is a channel economics fight: if compounding “leakage” persists (or enforcement gets chilled), it pressures branded net pricing and complicates the ramp for new starts. Also a read-through to telehealth/weight-loss distributor models that depend on uninterrupted branded supply.
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Source:
Endpoints
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More:
BioSpace
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3
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Boston Scientific to acquire Penumbra for $14.5B
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Boston Scientific has announced its intention to acquire Penumbra in a deal valued at $14.5 billion.
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Why it matters:
Okay, you got us — this is medtech, not biotech — but a $14.5B strategic takeout is still a capital-markets tell. It supports the view that large buyers
will underwrite scale when the asset is de-risked and category-leading, and that can buoy broader healthcare M&A expectations (and valuation discipline) into 2026.
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Source:
BioPharma Dive
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Everything Else that broke
- J&J's Tecvayli shows promise in early multiple myeloma. — BioPharma Dive
- FDA decision pushed to Q2 for Lilly's obesity pill orforglipron. — BioSpace
- Jazz sells priority review voucher for $200M. — BioSpace
- Ocugen reports positive Phase 2 data for OCU410 gene therapy. — Endpoints
- New York sues ex-Emergent CEO over insider trading. — Endpoints
- FDA to meet Novo Nordisk on site; AbbVie buys factory. — Endpoints
Deal Flow
M&A / BD&L
VC / Private Financings
- Pomelo Care raises $92M Series C at a $1.7B valuation; led by Stripes with participation from a16z, PLUS Capital, Atomico, BoxGroup, and SV Angel. — Endpoints
IPOs / Follow-Ons / Capital Markets
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BridgeBio launches a $550M convertible notes offering (due 2033). —
PR
Academic Corner
- Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) on obstructive sleep apnea-related cardiometabolic risk: secondary outcomes of the SURMOUNT-OSA randomized trial. — Nature Medicine
- CD4+ T cells mediate CAR-T cell-associated immune-related adverse events after BCMA CAR-T cell therapy. — Nature Medicine
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JPM week: closed. Weekend (+ beers): open. Enjoy, and we’ll be back on Monday. — BioBucks Team
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