Friday: Merck circles Revolution, IPO window cracks open

BioBucks Newsletter

Friday, 9 January, 2026

Upfront Briefing

Big Pharma went shopping (or at least window shopping): reports say Merck is in talks to buy Revolution Medicines in a $28B–$32B mega-deal — the kind of headline that instantly reprices oncology comps and forces investors to handicap bid/antitrust/timing risk.

Capital markets followed with actual prints: Aktis Oncology priced biotech’s first IPO of 2026 at $318M, while Monte Rosa priced a $300M underwritten offering — a useful read-through on whether risk appetite is real or just one-off.

And the private window still looks open: Parabilis closed a $305M financing, Alveus launched with $160M, and Beacon raised $75M+ — while policy stayed noisy with 340B mechanics still blocked and Lilly’s GLP-1/immunology crossover keeping the “adjacent TAM” narrative alive.

Tape Action

Instrument	Last close	1D %	YTD %
S&P 500	6,921.1	0.0%	1.1%
Nasdaq 100	25,507.5	(0.6%)	1.0%
Russell 2000	2,603.8	1.1%	4.9%
XBI (Biotech ETF)	123.7	(2.2%)	1.5%
Nasdaq Biotech	5,807.2	(2.3%)	1.8%
Clinical Trials ETF (BBC)	39.1	(1.2%)	1.3%

Small caps outperformed while biotech got hit: Russell 2000 rose as XBI slid.
Biotech was mostly red, with NBI the standout mover on the downside.
Market data: U.S. close Thu 08-Jan-2026.

The Big 3

1	Merck in talks to buy Revolution Medicines in a reported $28B–$32B deal

Reports say Merck is in discussions to acquire Revolution Medicines, with a price tag discussed in the $28B–$32B range (not finalized; other bidders may be interested).
Why it matters: If real, this is a rare “mega-cap pre-commercial” swing — it (1) signals urgency to backfill late-decade oncology risk, (2) resets the top-end comp set for RAS-pathway platforms, and (3) forces investors to handicap competitive-bid risk and deal timing as much as clinical readouts.
Source: Reuters
More: FT

2	Aktis Oncology prices biotech's first IPO of 2026 at $318M

Aktis Oncology priced the first biotech IPO of 2026, raising $318M for radiopharmaceutical programs.
Why it matters: Aftermarket + size signal “real” risk appetite — watch day-2 performance and follow-on filings to gauge whether 2026 ECM is actually reopening or this is a one-off radiopharma outlier.
Source: Endpoints
More: BioPharma Dive

3	Eli Lilly's Zepbound shows benefit in psoriatic arthritis (add-on)

New Lilly data suggest Zepbound, when added to an immunology drug, helped reduce symptoms in patients with psoriatic arthritis.
Why it matters: If benefit persists beyond weight-loss confounding, GLP-1s start looking like adjunct immunology tools — which could expand trial footprints and payer narratives (but needs controlled endpoints to be label-relevant).
Source: STAT
More: Endpoints

Everything Else that broke

Sanofi comments on FDA rejection of MS drug. — Endpoints
HHS loses bid to suspend court block on 340B rebate pilot. — Endpoints
Krystal Biotech reports positive CF study update. — PR
FDA approvals in 2025 analyzed by Endpoints and BioCentury. — BioCentury
FDA staff cuts did not impact drug review timelines. — Endpoints
FDA rejects Vanda's jet lag drug Hetlioz again. — Endpoints
Anaptys files motion to dismiss in Tesaro litigation. — PR
OpenAI launches ChatGPT for Healthcare in hospitals. — Endpoints
Illumina appoints Eric Green as Chief Medical Officer. — Endpoints

Deal Flow

M&A / BD&L

Merck in talks to buy Revolution Medicines in a reported $28B–$32B deal. — Reuters
Foresee Pharmaceuticals licenses MMP-12 inhibitor programs to Primevera Therapeutics ($10M upfront; milestones stated as up to $584.5M in one section and $574.5M in another; single-digit royalties; Primevera to buy 19% equity stake). — PR

VC / Private Financings

Parabilis Medicines closes oversubscribed $305M financing to advance FOG-001 and pipeline. — Business Wire
Alveus launches with $160M for obesity drug program. — BioPharma Dive
Beacon Therapeutics closes oversubscribed Series C financing for $75M+. — PR
Servier launches VC unit focused on European biotech startups. — Endpoints

IPOs / Follow-Ons

Aktis Oncology prices biotech's first IPO of 2026 at $318M. — Endpoints
Monte Rosa prices $300M underwritten public offering. — PR
Century Therapeutics secures oversubscribed ~$135M private placement financing. — PR

Academic Corner

Anti-inflammatory therapy with low-dose IL-2 in acute coronary syndromes: a randomized phase 2 trial. — Nature Medicine

That’s the tape. See you Monday for JPM week. — BioBucks Team